KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 77%
Marktqualitat
45 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
823 €
Liquidität
1065 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
13.0% / 22.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten
13. Sept. 26, 20:00 UTC1. Jan. 30, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum?
KalshiWill there be a border poll in Northern Ireland on Irish reunification by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Northern Ireland hold a referendum on leaving the UK before 2040?
Manifold MarketsNorthern Ireland Assembly Elections: Most seats
SmarketsGeorgia vs. Northern Ireland
PolymarketRegeln
If Northern Ireland agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to hold a border poll on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum??
- Kalshi bewertet No mit 77% (Stand: 20. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum? entschieden?
- Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If Northern Ireland agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to hold a border poll on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.