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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Politik
  3. Will Nauru be renamed to Naoero?
Will Nauru be renamed to Naoero?

Will Nauru be renamed to Naoero?

YearlyPolitikGeopolitik1J
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 72%
Marktqualitat

40 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

0 €

Liquidität

30,9 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

70.0% / 75.0%

Spread

7.1%

Mittlerer Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten

21. Mai 26, 21:001. Jan. 28, 15:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes72%

Regeln

If Yes wins the Nauruan constitutional referendum on changing the country's official name from Nauru to Naoero, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
  • If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
  • For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
  • If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
  • For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.

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Regeln

If Yes wins the Nauruan constitutional referendum on changing the country's official name from Nauru to Naoero, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
  • If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
  • For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
  • If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
  • For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.