KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Above 5% 96%Führend unter 11 Optionen
Marktqualitat
45 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
2463,3 €
Mittlere LiquiditätSpread
4.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Minuten
28. Juli 26, 20:4529. Okt. 26, 12:29
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Regeln
If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:FRED
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Offene Märkte
Trade Policy
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31-9.0pt47.4%
- October 31-5.5pt33%
- September 30-8.0pt14.4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 30.588,3 €
KALSHIWhat will Ulta say during their next earnings call?
- Uncertainty+4.0pt90%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence86%
- Luxury80%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 14.201,3 €
POLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?
- Yes+13.5pt69.3%
- No-13.5pt30.7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 5842,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1167,4 €
POLYMARKETWhich countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
- Canada-1.0pt20%
- India18%
- Israel17%
+14 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- Yes+0.1pt92%
- No-0.1pt8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 191.178,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1071,8 €
KALSHIHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- $0 / No Acquisition-1.0pt86.6%
- $600 billion to $899 billion-1.2pt3.1%
- $1 billion to $9 billion3.1%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
- Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Aug 2026?
- Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
- Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
- Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?
- Will the CIT strike down Trump's Section 301 tariffs in 2026?
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
Zugehörige Kryptos
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026?
- Kalshi bewertet Above 5% mit 96% (Stand: 21. August 2026).
- Wann wird US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 entschieden?
- US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 soll am 29. Oktober 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.