Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Reform UK 92%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Marktqualitat
100 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
127.226,2 €
Liquidität
106.767 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
90.0% / 92.0%
Spread
2.2%
Enger SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Minuten
7. Juli 26, 14:451. Sept. 27, 14:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Reform UK92%
Plattformen vergleichen· Reform UK
Sortiert nach 24h-Volumen
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Clacton by-election Winner
11Mon
91%
50%
50%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
100 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung
Gesamtvolumen309.279,5 €
24h-Volumen309.279,5 €
POLYMARKET
Auch verfügbar auf Smarkets
Clacton By-Election - Winner
0%
14.7%
0%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
49 • Niedrige QualitätSpread unbekanntNiedrige Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen17.485,3 €
24h-Volumen17.485,3 €
SMARKETSRegeln
If Reform UK wins the 2026 Clacton by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$145.2k7. Juli2T Daten8. Juli
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If Reform UK wins the 2026 Clacton by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.