Will Trump order mandatory pre-release federal review of AI models?
PolitikOne-OffUS PoliticsWahl5Mon
KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitBefore Jan 1, 2027 32%
Marktqualitat
50 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
447,3 €
Liquidität
1660,2 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
29.0% / 33.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 26 Minuten
4. Juni 26, 20:001. Jan. 27, 4:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Before Jan 1, 202732%
Plattformen vergleichen· Before Jan 1, 2027
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Mittel | 32% | — | 447,3 € | 1660,2 € | vor 26 Minuten | |
 PolymarketAktivste80% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | Niedrig | 19% | — | 483,4 € | 1551,4 € | vor 6 Minuten | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by which date?
13.0 ptsGeschlossen
+13.0pt19%
-1.6pt0%
0%
45 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadNiedrige Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen358.542,7 €
24h-Volumen483,4 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary.
- Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included.
- Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify.
- The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.
- If Donald Trump has taken any executive action establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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If Donald Trump has taken any executive action establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary.
- Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included.
- Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify.
- The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.
- If Donald Trump has taken any executive action establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.