Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 90%
Tahminciler
19
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli24 Mar 25 15:41 UTC24 Mar 35 15:34 UTC
Trendler
Makroya Duyarlı Varlıklar
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold Markets2026 World GDP Growth
PolymarketCPI YoY in November
KalshiKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if the world GDP grows by an order of magnitude (10x increase) within a 10-year period from market creation.
- It will resolve to "No" if:
- There is insufficient growth for the world GDP to have at least doubled by the end of the 10-year period, OR
- At the end of the 10-year period, the world GDP has not increased by a factor of 10 from its starting value.
- An order of magnitude increase means the world GDP would need to grow by a factor of 10 (1000%).