Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 70.7%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli22 Mar 26 03:03 UTC1 Oca 27 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will JPMorgan force their employees to use generative AI for analyses, reports or other work in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill inference-time scaling improve the generation of images with correct geometric shapes? (in generative AI)
Manifold MarketsWill any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiTrump renames AI by September 30?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM PT on December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms a generative AI system (e.g., LLM, VLM, VLA) autonomously authorized and executed a successful lethal strike against a human target without a human operator issuing the final execution command.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Full Autonomy: The AI independently identified the target and initiated the strike.
- (Note: If a human was monitoring "on-the-loop" but the AI executed the strike before they could or did intervene, this counts as YES).
- Generative Architecture: The system utilized a transformer-based or multimodal architecture capable of semantic reasoning.
- If the exact architecture is classified, credible reporting must explicitly describe the system as using generative AI, LLMs, VLMs, VLAs, or complex semantic reasoning.
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?
- China (5+ times)-20.0pt44%
- Melania+12.0pt42%
- Peace32%
+25 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,9 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺7,2 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.1pt71%
- ChatGPT-2.4pt12%
- Gemini+1.8pt9%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺584,6 Mn
POLYMARKETTrump renames AI by September 30?
- No-3.5pt67%
- Yes+3.5pt33%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺4,1 Mn
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.3pt99%
- OpenAI-0.1pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt2.8%
- Gemini1.8%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺8,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺3,9 Mn
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-0.5pt90.9%
- Moonshot-0.5pt6.1%
- Z.ai-1.3pt1%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Qwen market share this week
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 24 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 70.7% fiyatlıyor.
- Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2027.
- Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM PT on December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms a generative AI system (e.g., LLM, VLM, VLA) autonomously authorized and executed a successful lethal strike against a human target without a human operator issuing the final execution command.