Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
25 Eki 2026 06:21 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahminiHayır 70.9%
Tahminciler
17
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
16 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Oca 23 22:36 UTC1 Oca 28 07:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Holden Karnofsky create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Vox, a popular news organization.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
