Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 73.2%
Tahminciler
30
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
44 dakika önce güncellendi
9 Oca 23 18:00 UTC1 Oca 28 07:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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Manifold MarketsKurallar
Matt Levine, the Bloomberg opinion columnist.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
- IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.
