Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?
Ticaret PolitikasıOne-OffSeçimJeopolitikLatin AmerikaABD SiyasetiPolitika2y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 80.1%
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12
Soru türü
binary
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Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
22 dakika önce güncellendi
16 Haz 26 15:00 UTC31 Ara 28 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, the United States under the presidential administration of Donald Trump officially annexes any portion of Brazilian territory or conducts unauthorized military action against or within Brazil.
- Specifically:
- Annexation is defined as the United States officially claiming sovereignty, annexing, or establishing a formal protectorate over any portion of Brazil's internationally recognized territory, codified by a U.S. executive order, presidential proclamation, federal law, or treaty signed by Donald Trump.
- Military Action is defined as a kinetic military operation (including but not limited to airstrikes, drone strikes, missile launches, naval blockades, or ground troop incursions) conducted by the United States Armed Forces within Brazil’s internationally recognized land borders, territorial waters, or airspace.
- To qualify, the military action must be directed against targets (including state forces, infrastructure, or local non-state actors/gangs) without the explicit consent or written invitation of the internationally recognized federal government of Brazil.
