Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028? için güncel oranlar nedir?

Manifold Markets, 30 Ekim 2026 itibarıyla No için 69% fiyatlıyor.

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 7 Kasım 2028.

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibre

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Hayır 69%

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28 Nis 25 04:20 UTC7 Kas 28 23:59 UTC

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I have bet @CrypticQccZ at 9:1 odds that at least 100K people worldwide will belong to successionist movements/religions by November 7, 2028.

I will pay them $900 if this market resolves NO, and he will pay me $100 if it resolves YES.
There are two independent pathways to a YES resolution (the bet resolves YES if either group described below encompasses more than 100K individuals):
Resolves to majority vote of 3 independent observers chosen by both of us on Nov 7, 2028.
In the likely event that successionist groups exist in some form, but clear numbers are not available, judges will make an honest attempt to make a point estimate of the number of people who belong to groups matching the description of each of the following two pathways to a YES resolution.
First pathway to a YES resolution: 100,000 or more people worldwide belong to successionist ideological movements or political causes.