Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
One-OffYZRegülasyonUS PoliticsTeknoloji3ay
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 74.7%
Tahminciler
19
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis13 Haz 26 21:36 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight?
Manifold MarketsWeights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?
Manifold MarketsAn open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26
Manifold MarketsWill LLM restrictions become law in 2026?
KalshiWill Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026?
KalshiAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
For the purposes of this market, “to introduce a domestic restriction on open-weight LLMs” means new federal action that removes or limits US citizens’ ability to develop, access, use, or modify one or more open-weight LLMs. “New” is relative to this market’s creation on June 13, 2026.
- I will resolve to YES if, by the end of 2026, this occurs, is publicly reported, and is documented on this market.
- I will resolve to NO at the close of the market otherwise.
- Update 2026-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A supply chain risk designation applied to an open-weight model (similar to the one applied to Claude) would not resolve this market YES.
- The market tracks new general restrictions on what Americans can do with open-weight LLMs, not restrictions limited to government/defense contractor usage.