Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 93.2%
Tahminciler
53
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis30 Mar 25 18:53 UTC31 Mar 27 22:59 UTC
Trendler
Makroya Duyarlı Varlıklar
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Kurallar
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2025 and end of 2026.
- Otherwise NO.
- Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate.
- See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
- In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.
Açık piyasalar
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺75,8 Mn
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺20,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺31,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,9 Mn
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes23%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺17,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺620 B
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-4.0pt56%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺678,5 B
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺997,4 B
- CPI in September
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
İlgili Kriptolar
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the US experience a recession during 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 93% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the US experience a recession during 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the US experience a recession during 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Mart 2027.
- Will the US experience a recession during 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2025 and end of 2026.