Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?
Şirket İşlemleriYZOne-OffRegülasyonİş Dünyası ve Şirketler3yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiIF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban) 60%3 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
2
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
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1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli13 Eyl 26 23:16 UTC1 Oca 30 00:00 UTC
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roon (OpenAI), Sep 12 2026: "i won't lie to you, i think open source will be banned before too long after some major disaster. and when the day comes, you'll agree with me. i hope kimi and deepseek etc keep making models but keep them monitored on an api where they should be."
- A reply argued the ban is what closed labs need: they're unprofitable, need to IPO, and need the government to hand them a monopoly via regulation.
- This market tests both claims.
- Answers are independent and resolve separately.
- Answer 1: the named outcome
- Resolves YES if, on or before Dec 31, 2029, the US federal government enacts a statute, executive order, or final agency rule that prohibits the public release of model weights for general-purpose AI models, either outright or above a capability/compute threshold.
