Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 78.2%
Tahminciler
20
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
10 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis8 Mar 26 22:57 UTC28 Şub 29 22:49 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will America lose its war against Iran?
Manifold MarketsWill the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?
Manifold MarketsSaudi Arabia military action against Iran by which date?
PolymarketEuropean military action against Iran by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Losing the war would be defined in two ways:
- 1: the US pulls all of their forces out of Iran, stops all attacks, and Iran as allowed to continue enriching uranium with no verifiable international controls.
- US military assets.
- (not special forces or CIA or other non-military assets.) have left the borders of Iran and there are no verifiable air land or sea attacks on Iranian soil for at least 60 days..
- 2: the United States is considered to be bogged down into a “forever war’
- Their military is continuously engaged in a significant way for at least two years.
