Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 75.1%
Tahminciler
7
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
8 dakika önce güncellendi
30 Haz 26 22:53 UTC31 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Dem sweep & Chinese AI model #1 by end of 2027?
PolymarketAI: Will any model exceed World Cup peak interest? (by 2030)
Manifold MarketsAny leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a teardown confirm domestically-manufactured HBM in a shipping Chinese AI accelerator by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
KalshiUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2028, a large language model developed by a Chinese-headquartered organization achieves a strictly higher Elo rating than the highest-rated model developed by a US-headquartered organization on the official LMArena Overall Text Leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Primary Source of Truth: The Overall Text Arena Leaderboard hosted by LMArena (formerly LMSYS Chatbot Arena) at lmarena.ai or its official Hugging Face Space.
- Corporate Headquarter Classification:
- Chinese-headquartered developers include, but are not limited to: DeepSeek, Alibaba (Qwen), ByteDance (Doubao), Tencent (Hunyuan), Baidu (Ernie), Zhipu AI (GLM), 01.AI (Yi), and Moonshot AI (Kimi).