Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 79.4%
Tahminciler
9
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
22 dakika önce güncellendi
3 Tem 26 03:06 UTC6 Kas 26 13:25 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
October Unemployment Rate
PolymarketMexico unemployment rate in October
KalshiRussia unemployment rate in September
KalshiSouth Africa unemployment rate in Q3
KalshiChina unemployment rate in October
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in November 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
ForecastExKurallar
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for October 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release.
- A value of 4.5% or higher resolves YES.
- A value of 4.4% or lower resolves NO.
- Do not use total nonfarm payroll employment, household employment level, labor-force participation, U-6, metro-area or state unemployment rates, demographic subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, any-2026-month markets, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial October 2026 release before resolution.
- If the October 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the October 2026 U-3 unemployment rate unless there is no such release by November 13, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": "The latest checked BLS Employment Situation release for June 2026 reported U-3 unemployment at 4.2 percent, total nonfarm payroll employment up 57,000, and labor-force participation at 61.5 percent.", "metric": "U-3 official unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, household survey", "related_non_duplicates": ["October 2026 nonfarm-payroll-change markets use CES payrolls, not U-3 unemployment.", "Other months, U-6, labor-force participation, claims, ADP, JOLTS, state, metro, demographic, forecast, and revision markets are not exact duplicates.", "Any-2026-month unemployment markets are not exact duplicates of the October reference-month threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS schedules the October 2026 Employment Situation release for 2026-11-06 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026", "threshold": "4.5 percent or higher"}.
Tahmin Kaynağı Karşılaştırması
- Polymarket üzerinde de mevcut — October Unemployment Rate · 4.2% 34%
- Kalshi üzerinde de mevcut — Unemployment rate in Oct 2026? · Exactly 4.2% 37%