Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 94.7%
Tahminciler
21
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
22 dakika önce güncellendi
4 Şub 25 08:45 UTC2 Oca 27 07:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
When will 14-day weather forecasts reach 60% accuracy?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Escambia, Florida in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather)?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Santa Rosa, Florida in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather)?
ForecastExWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
Polymarket[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Some people on the right have made noise about restricting the NWS from providing weather forecasts in the past, and with Trump back in office, they may try to do so again.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the National Weather Service stops providing weather forecasts to the U.S. public before January 1, 2027.
- Specifically, this will resolve YES if the NWS does not provide forecasts, or provides forecasts limited to the following 72 hours or less, to areas of the U.S. representing a majority of Americans, for a period of at least one week.
- This includes both their website (weather.gov) and official forecast products.
- The market will resolve NO if NOAA continues to provide weather forecasts through 2026.
- Temporary interruptions in service due to technical issues or government shutdowns will not count as stopping forecasts.
