Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiBefore 2040 36.9%5 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
12
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
5 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Mar 25 18:23 UTC1 Oca 00 00:00 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
This market asks when 14-day weather forecasts will reach at least 60% accuracy as determined by official statements from major meteorological organizations (NOAA, Met Office, ECMWF, etc.).
- Current accuracy levels for reference:
- 7-day forecasts: ~80% accurate
- 10-day forecasts: ~50% accurate
- https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/
- https://ourworldindata.org/weather-forecasts
