Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?
JeopolitikOne-OffOrta Doğu2ay
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 62.3%
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Gecikmeli3 Ağu 26 18:19 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the first round of official direct or indirect diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran (including mediated talks via third parties like Oman, Qatar, or Pakistan) occurring on or after August 3, 2026, results in a ceasefire agreement that successfully lasts for at least 30 consecutive days.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Detailed Rules for Resolution:
- Eligible Negotiations: The negotiations must be widely recognized by major international media outlets as official diplomatic efforts (whether direct or indirect/mediated) between representatives of the U.S. and Iran aimed at de-escalation, conflict resolution, or establishing a truce.
- Ceasefire Definition: The negotiations must result in a mutually agreed ceasefire or pause in hostilities.