Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 65.7%
Tahminciler
14
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
10 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Ara 25 16:53 UTC31 Ara 29 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?
Manifold MarketsFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves based on the next Bundestag Chancellor election (expected 2029 or earlier).
- Resolves YES if some or all AfD MPs vote for the winning Chancellor candidate AND their votes are necessary for the candidate to win (absolute majority in rounds 1–2, or plurality in round 3).
- Resolves NO if the Chancellor is elected without AfD votes, or if AfD votes for the winner but they would have won without them.
- Note: If votes are secret, resolution will be based on publicly available information (e.g., announced coalition agreements, party statements).
- In ambiguous cases, resolves based on market creator's best judgment.
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 66% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2029.
- Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves based on the next Bundestag Chancellor election (expected 2029 or earlier).