Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiJoe Rogan 45.4%5 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
8
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
10 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis1 Nis 26 00:20 UTC31 Ara 29 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next permanent host of The Daily Show? [Add Answers]
Manifold MarketsWill I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for each person if they publicly identify as Christian or convert to Christianity before January 1, 2030.
- Conversion requires either: (1) explicit public statement of Christian faith and belief in Jesus Christ as savior, or (2) formal baptism/confirmation into a Christian denomination.
- Identifying as "cultural Christian" or expressing admiration for Christian teachings without affirming core Christian doctrine does not constitute conversion.
- Resolution sources include public interviews, social media statements, official church records, and credible news reporting.
- the named outcome has recently attended church services on a consistent basis, though he has never professed to be a Christian.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-13.0pt62.4%
- 2027-13.0pt29.7%
- 2026-3.5pt7.9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺7,4 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-0.5pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt57%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.2%
- Grok+2.5pt7.5%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺514,3 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺19,7 Mn
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- Most popular AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers] için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Joe Rogan için 45% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers] ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers] için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2029.
- Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers] nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria