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Will owning a self driving car become cheaper than driving yourself due to insurance before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill more people travel between cities by self driving car than by inter city rail before 2037
Manifold MarketsWhich company will be the first to deploy >10,000 humanoid robots?
Manifold MarketsWearable self-driving car safety dongle with 1m users by end of 2030
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiKurallar
As this article (https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/05/27/1052826/ai-reinforcement-learning-self-driving-cars-autonomous-vehicles-wayve-waabi-cruise/) describes, first generation self-driving companies like Waymo and Cruise have (seemingly) doubled down on having the interface between perception, planning, and control be modular and are continuing to use HD maps combined with LIDAR for driving.
- On the other hand, companies like Wayve and comma.ai are shooting for an end-to-end learned approach where perception translates directly to control using RL or something similar.
- Tesla falls somewhere in the middle but currently seems to be in the former category.
- This question will resolve to "Yes" if a company clearly using the latter approach is the first to deploy self-driving cars in 50 cities.
- It will also resolve to "Yes" if one of the companies in the former group pivots approaches and uses mostly or entirely end-to-end approaches in their deployed production systems.
- It resolves to "No" if a member of the former category reaches 50 cities without changing their approach.