Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 90.6%
Tahminciler
56
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis26 Ara 23 19:45 UTC2 Oca 27 07:54 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will 2026 be the year of the Linux desktop?
Manifold MarketsWill any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be self driving taxis in London, UK by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketKurallar
For decades, people have talked about the "year of the Linux desktop", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use.
- For years, people have talked about self-driving cars being right around the corner.
- This market resolves YES if reliable self-driving cars are generally available (e.g. summonable for a ride by anyone in a large-scale market such as a country or several entire states of a country, not a 1-2 city trial) before Linux reaches 10% desktop market share (by some reasonably objective metric).
- This market resolves NO if Linux reaches 10% desktop computer market share before reliable self-driving cars are generally available.
- I expect to extend this market's close date if neither condition occurs.
Açık piyasalar
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺77,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺76,3 Mn
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°-2.0pt28.7%
- 90° or above+11.0pt26.7%
- 86° to 87°-10.0pt25.7%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+9.0pt31.7%
- 160-179-2.0pt21.1%
- 200-219+5.0pt21.1%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+36.0pt99%
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
+19 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺14,6 Mn
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt52%
- 65-89+24.5pt45.1%
- 90-114-2.5pt2.9%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Next James Bond actor?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 91% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2027.
- Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: For decades, people have talked about the "year of the Linux desktop", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use.