Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 79.4%
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42
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis12 Şub 26 20:12 UTC31 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
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FutuurKurallar
Resolves YES if, before December 31, 2027, at least three major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Times) explicitly describe a sustained downturn in AI investment, valuations, or AI-related public stocks as an “AI bubble burst,” “AI crash,” or equivalent term primarily attributed to AI sector dynamics.
- General economic downturns not primarily attributed to AI do not count.
- Sustained downturn = A decline of at least 30% from a prior peak sustained for at least 3 consecutive months, in at least three major publicly traded companies widely recognized as primary beneficiaries of the AI boom OR a documented reduction in AI venture funding and valuations covering at least two consecutive quarters.
- Examples of public AI companies include, but are not limited to: NVDA, AMD, TSMC
- Update 2026-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the "sustained downturn" requirement:
- 3 AI stocks must decline at least 30% from prior peak for 3 consecutive months, OR
