Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
One-OffPolitikaYZHava DurumuSeçimAvrupa2ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 71%
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30 dakika önce güncellendi
9 Şub 26 15:14 UTC30 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the AfD officially joins a governing coalition at the state level (Landtag) in any German state by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires the AfD to be formally part of a coalition government with executive power, not merely a supporting party in parliament.
- Five German states will hold elections in 2026: Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate (March), Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (September), and Berlin (September).
- The market resolves NO if no AfD-led or AfD-inclusive coalition government is formed by the deadline.
- The AfD has already finished in first place in one state election, in Thuringia in 2024, but did not join a governing coalition.