Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 77.8%
Tahminciler
17
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Şub 26 15:14 UTC30 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketWill any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsAfD in a German state government in 2026?
KalshiWIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Coalition next split before the next election?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the AfD officially joins a governing coalition at the state level (Landtag) in any German state by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires the AfD to be formally part of a coalition government with executive power, not merely a supporting party in parliament.
- Five German states will hold elections in 2026: Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate (March), Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (September), and Berlin (September).
- The market resolves NO if no AfD-led or AfD-inclusive coalition government is formed by the deadline.
- The AfD has already finished in first place in one state election, in Thuringia in 2024, but did not join a governing coalition.
Açık piyasalar
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 daha fazla sonuç
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
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- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.8pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34 Mr
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- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.2pt3%
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt14.1%
+45 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺10,3 Mr
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 daha fazla sonuç
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 78% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 30 Aralık 2026.
- Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria