Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 88.8%
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7
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis16 May 25 19:17 UTC30 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Pope Leo XIV visit first the U.S. or Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump meet with Pope Leo in 2026?
PredictItWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Leo XIV explicitly mentions Nick Bostrom in any official papal document, speech, or publication.
- The document has to be authored or signed off by the pope.
- The market will resolve to "No" if there is no such mention by the end of 2027.
- Reliable sources for verification include official Vatican publications: https://www.vatican.va https://press.vatican.va
- As an example of citation see the following text in which Pope Francis cites John McCarthy and Alan Turing.: https://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/congregations/cfaith/documents/rc_ddf_doc_20250128_antiqua-et-nova_en.html
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.6pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺562,9 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺4,4 Mn
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-10.0pt70%
- December 15,+10.5pt65%
- November 30,-0.5pt49%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+3.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺11,3 Mn
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 daha fazla sonuç
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best AI this week
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 20 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 89% fiyatlıyor.
- Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 30 Aralık 2027.
- Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria