Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 90.2%
Tahminciler
23
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Mar 26 00:40 UTC28 Şub 27 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a bridge across the Strait of Messina between mainland Italy and Sicily have started construction by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill OFAC sanction a mainland Chinese bank for facilitating Iranian trade by September 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
This market resolves YES if Iran successfully conducts a direct attack on the mainland United States (the 50 states) resulting in at least 10 casualties before March, the 1st, 2027.
- Casualties include deaths and injuries.
- The attack must be carried out by Iranian state forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or entities directly controlled by the Iranian government.
- Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks by Iranian-supported groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) will count as YES if the group states the attack is meant as revenge for Iran.
- Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks by Iranian-funded/directed groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) may count as YES if the attack was funded and directed by Iran.
- Attacks by those groups for other reasons (e.g., related to Gaza) would not count.
Açık piyasalar
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺34,6 Mn
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-10.0pt72%
- September 18-11.0pt65%
- September 11-15.0pt54%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.6%
- September 30-4.0pt12.2%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No86%
- Yes14%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,7 Mn
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027 için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 90% fiyatlıyor.
- Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027 ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027 için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 28 Şubat 2027.
- Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027 nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market resolves YES if Iran successfully conducts a direct attack on the mainland United States (the 50 states) resulting in at least 10 casualties before March, the 1st, 2027.