Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 89%
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79
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
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7 dakika önce güncellendi
1 Eyl 26 15:57 UTC30 Eyl 26 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?
PolymarketIf Fable 5.1 is listed on arena.ai on September 14th will it have a higher agent arena score than Fable 5?
Manifold MarketsWho will win gold medal at 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
Should be a top 10 math problem of its math subfield, so nothing crazy but several mathematicians care about it and have tried solving it.
- I have started a project to see how doable this is at scale, may drop it if it doesn’t go anywhere.
- Tips welcome.
- By ‘solve’ I don't have a too airtight definition, but it would definitely count if a Lean statement was proven without exploiting bugs in the lean kernel for example, as would an involved expert mathematician signing off on it.
- Edge cases like AIs all agreeing the solution is clearly correct, and nobody managing to find errors, would lead to the market staying closed pre-resolution to give the math community time to find errors, but I may ultimately count it without strong guarantees if it seems very likely to be correct.
- A problem still counts if it's a solve that shows the problem wasn't interesting after all, or similar cope
Açık piyasalar
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-13.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-high+1.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+20.0pt63.5%
- 2027-3.5pt26.1%
- 2026+5.5pt10.4%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude61.8%
- ChatGPT-4.9pt22.6%
- Grok+1.5pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺511,4 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+4.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-5.5pt50%
- 1500+-10.0pt23%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 89% fiyatlıyor.
- Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 30 Eylül 2026.
- Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Should be a top 10 math problem of its math subfield, so nothing crazy but several mathematicians care about it and have tried solving it.