Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 81.9%
Tahminciler
17
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis20 Ağu 26 02:59 UTC1 Oca 30 04:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Jose Luis Ricon get a intracortical electrode [eg neuropixels/axoft] to foundation-model his brain by EOY2042?
Manifold MarketsReal-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).
Manifold MarketsWill a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk have a Neuralink chip implanted in his own brain by the end of 2029?
FutuurWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill humans colonize Mars before 2050?
KalshiKurallar
Resolves YES if a map of the human brain is made by end of 2029.
- Its quality should be at least the one of the map made of a fruit fly brain: https://www.science.org/content/article/complete-map-fruit-fly-brain-circuitry-unveiled.
- Otherwise, this resolves NO.
- The result should be publicly available.
- A counter example would be some result obtained through an unethical process hidden in a classified lab located in the Mariana Trench.
Açık piyasalar
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+23.4pt55%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺7,1 Mn
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.3pt5%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mn
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺6,1 Mn
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺91,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺292,1 B
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+15.8pt64.4%
- 4.2-4.4m-16.6pt27.9%
- 4.6-4.8m-0.1pt2.9%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 82% fiyatlıyor.
- Will humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2030.
- Will humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if a map of the human brain is made by end of 2029.