Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 74.5%
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4
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
7 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis4 May 26 20:22 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWill Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Clarity Act become law?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiKurallar
Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-31, the High Bandwidth Memory 3e (HBM3e) supply situation has publicly transitioned from "shortage" to "balanced" or "oversupply" per any of the following publicly accessible sources:
- A public statement from a major HBM supplier (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron) in an earnings call transcript or press release indicating HBM3e supply meets or exceeds demand
- A public report from a research organization (Epoch AI, CSET, Brookings, government statistical agency) indicating HBM3e shortage has cleared
- TrendForce or similar publicly published market-summary data (free-tier reports only — NOT paywalled subscription content) indicating supply ≥ demand
- Source of truth: publicly accessible earnings call transcripts (SEC EDGAR / company IR pages), public press releases, free-tier industry reports.
- Tie-breaker rule: if there are conflicting public statements from different suppliers, the market resolves based on the predominance of public evidence as of 2026-12-31.
Açık piyasalar
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺703,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,5 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-23.0pt41%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-9.0pt36%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-4.0pt33%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-4.0pt94%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T21.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T20.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T-2.3pt17.4%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+18.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+13.0pt57%
+1 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Weed rescheduled by which date?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 75% fiyatlıyor.
- Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-31, the High Bandwidth Memory 3e (HBM3e) supply situation has publicly transitioned from "shortage" to "balanced" or "oversupply" per any of the following publicly accessible sources: