Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?
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In a July 2025 post titled 'Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically', Gary Marcus wrote:
- My p(doom) is still lower than most industry people’s.
- I am at maybe 3% now, much higher than a month ago
- This question will concern any future updates of a similar kind that Gary Marcus may publicly make.
- If he suggests in public that his p(doom) has risen further to some figure at or above 10% before 2027, this market will resolve YES.
- Otherwise the market will resolve NO.
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 86% fiyatlıyor.
- Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2027.
- Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: In a July 2025 post titled 'Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically', Gary Marcus wrote: