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Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) 92.1%14 seçenek arasında lider
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41
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
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7 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis8 Oca 25 12:19 UTC31 Oca 28 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?
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Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development.
- The terms of the bet are articulated in this substack post. https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
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- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) için 92% fiyatlıyor.
- Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Ocak 2028.
- Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development.