Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 77.6%
Tahminciler
36
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis12 Mar 25 07:22 UTC2 Şub 40 13:29 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
Manifold Markets[Add options] Which of these highly unlikely things will happen to me this century?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI-generated song about Bitcoin reach 1M streams before 2027?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
The Awards that could count for the purposes of this market are:
- Turing Award
- IEEE Richard W. Hamming Medal
- Millenium Technology Prize
- Nebula Award
- IEEE John von Neumann Medal
