Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 87.7%
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6
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
12 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Şub 26 00:45 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWill Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWill "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Benchmark is here: https://scale.com/leaderboard/scipredict.
- It tests models' ability to predict the results of scientific experiments.
- As of writing, current SOTA is Gemini 3 Pro's 25.27%.
