Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 65.7%
Tahminciler
9
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis27 Haz 26 21:53 UTC31 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if, before 1 Jan 2028, there is either (a) an official Chinese government announcement, regulation, or directive, or (b) reporting from at least two credible outlets, indicating that the Chinese state has imposed a binding restriction, licensing/approval requirement, or prohibition specifically on the public release of open-weight AI models that exceed a defined capability threshold — where the threshold is tied to capability or scale (e.g. training compute, benchmark performance, or a designated "frontier"/high-risk tier).
- The restriction must be conditioned on model capability/scale.
- It does not count if it is merely an extension of existing content-moderation, or security-review rules that apply to AI services regardless of capability, nor if it applies only to closed/API-served models.
- Related: @/SamuelKnoche/will-china-restrict-the-open-releas
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 66% fiyatlıyor.
- Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2027.
- Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria: