Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 67.8%
Tahminciler
3
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
18 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis6 Tem 26 18:48 UTC31 Ara 30 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
Manifold MarketsWill the UK have greater access to US frontier AI than France in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill any currency overtake the US dollar in international trade by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, as of December 31, 2030, the leading frontier AI model developed primarily by a China-headquartered entity achieves parity with or surpasses the leading frontier AI model developed primarily by a US-headquartered entity.
- Resolution will be determined sequentially using the following sources:
- Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI): If Epoch AI is active and tracking capabilities as of December 31, 2030, this market resolves to YES if the highest-rated model developed by a China-headquartered organization has an ECI score equal to or higher than the highest-rated model developed by a US-headquartered organization.
- LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard: If the ECI is unavailable, this market resolves to YES if the top model developed by a China-headquartered organization on the overall LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard has an Arena Elo rating equal to or higher than the top model developed by a US-headquartered organization as of December 31, 2030.
- Stanford AI Index / CSET Reports: If both of the above metrics are defunct, the market will resolve to YES if the closest Stanford AI Index Report (e.g., the 2031 report tracking 2030 progress) or research from Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) explicitly states that Chinese frontier models have matched or overtaken US frontier models in capability.
Açık piyasalar
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,3 Mn
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺634,1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2,2 Mn
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+9.0pt52.8%
- 27°C+3.0pt22.6%
- 25°C-4.0pt16%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No72.3%
- Yes27.7%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺20,1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺758,1 B
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+0.5pt89.1%
- Yes-0.5pt10.9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺150,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺623,7 B
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.4pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 68% fiyatlıyor.
- Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2030.
- Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria