Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiYes, by 2100 62.1%
Tahminciler
10
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Eyl 26 12:27 UTC31 Ara 99 23:59 UTC
Trendler
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PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100, a major, reputable public polling or research organization (e.g., Pew Research Center, Gallup, or a comparable national statistical/census agency) publishes a survey indicating that 50% or more of surveyed adults in the United States (or a globally representative sample) use generative AI chatbots or LLM-based conversational assistants (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, or their direct technological successors) on a daily basis (or "almost every day").
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO on January 1, 2100.
- Resolution Notes:
- If the specified polling organizations (Pew, Gallup) cease to exist before the threshold is met, comparable academic studies from major research institutions (e.g., MIT, Stanford) or official government census data will be used.
- If no definitive public polling data is available in the final years leading up to 2100, the market may be resolved using the best available historical data and a consensus poll of platform users at that time.