Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
19 Eki 2026 19:10 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahminiHayır 58.1%
Tahminciler
4
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
5 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Oca 26 21:50 UTC31 Ara 40 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived
Manifold MarketsBy which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?
Manifold Markets10 years before AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will still be less mainstream than global warming was in 2015
Manifold Marketswill the AGI Clock's one-year average be below two years when 'AGI When?' resolves?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES if ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) is developed greater than 5 years after AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is developed.
