Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?
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4 May 26 20:22 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, any frontier AI lab (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta AI, xAI, etc.) publicly discloses or reliably reports a single training run for a frontier-class model where the total compute cost exceeds $1 billion USD.
- Acceptable evidence for resolution:
- Direct disclosure by the AI lab in a public technical report, model card, blog post, or earnings call
- Reliable third-party calculation by Epoch AI based on disclosed FLOP count + market GPU-hour pricing
- Peer-reviewed academic paper or arXiv preprint with credible cost estimate
- The training run must be for a single model (not a research program total).
