Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 60.9%
Tahminciler
7
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
5 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis25 May 26 17:03 UTC1 Oca 28 02:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
Manifold MarketsLargest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho IPOs first?
MyriadWill Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
PolymarketWho IPOs first?
MyriadKurallar
This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.
- The model MUST be available to the public, either through non whitelisted API access or open weights.
- Just announcements wouldn't count.
- By selecting for 'frontier' i intend to exclude very small, experimental models.
- I will judge this subjectively, therefore i will not trade on this market.
Açık piyasalar
Crypto
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,486.84 target
- Yes99%
- No1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺81,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺57,2 Mn
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M-0.7pt96%
- $25M-1.0pt94%
- $50M-8.0pt87%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺23,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺23,6 Mn
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
- 70,000+0.4pt100%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $73,000 or above98%
- $69,500 or above98%
- $68,500 or above97%
+47 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺61,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺17,4 Mn
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺702 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺13,8 Mn
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?
- What price will Ethereum hit on September 8?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 61% fiyatlıyor.
- Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2028.
- Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.