Güncel topluluk tahmini
At least 1.1 Million 61.4%5 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
6
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Mar 26 07:41 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?
Manifold MarketsA top-three AI lab delays a frontier model release six months for safety reasons?
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PolymarketSecond-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?
PolymarketSecond-best AI Lab end of December?
PolymarketKurallar
People are talking about continual learning being solved effectively through brute force, by giving LLMs extremely large context windows.
- How far will this go in 2026?
- By top three AI labs, I mean Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google.
- So far the largest context window available from these companies is GPT 5.4 with a 1.05M token context, with Anthropic and Google both having models with 1M.
- Previously Google has also offered models with 2M token context (Gemini 1.5, which didn't seem to make good use of the large context window), but for this question I'll consider only models released during 2026.
- I will resolve based on the largest context windows which are publicly available, whether through API, chat, agentic coding services, etc. I won't evaluate how effectively models can actually use their advertised context windows, although I hope we get more robust benchmarks for this in general.
