Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
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Guncelligini yitirmis4 May 26 17:53 UTC31 May 29 23:59 UTC
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This market resolves YES if Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 2.6 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Alcoa's 2024 Aluminum segment shipments came in at 2.5–2.6 Mt with modest expansion underway at Pinjarra (Western Australia) and Alumar (Brazil).
- The 2.6 Mt strike for 2028 sits at roughly the company's run-rate; under the modest Pinjarra/Alumar ramp, 2028 production could come in slightly above this strike, making this a probability-anchored just above 50%.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- Alcoa Corporation Q4 / full-year financial release https://news.alcoa.com/press-releases
