Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
In 2030 or earlier 55%7 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
75
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
16 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis26 Oca 24 09:59 UTC2 Oca 28 22:59 UTC
Trendler
0%
0%
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PolymarketKurallar
With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.
- This means that an AI mistake could have significant consequences.
- In this question I'm considering situations in which AI actions are directly causing an incident, accident or catastrophe resulting in $1 billion of damages.
- If the event causes loss of life, each death counts as $10 million of damages.
- The incident should be a direct consequence of the AI's decisions, actions or output.
- It should not have happened if the AI wasn't involved.
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla In 2030 or earlier için 55% fiyatlıyor.
- Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2028.
- Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.