Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 86.8%
Tahminciler
21
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
7 dakika önce güncellendi
24 Şub 26 14:28 UTC31 Ara 30 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human
Manifold MarketsIs FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus?
Manifold MarketsWill xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
This market resolves YES if the following statement is true:
- For a typical nontrivial open mathematical conjecture stated within the standard axioms of mathematics, the probability that a publicly available AI system solves the conjecture autonomously within a fixed time horizon is greater than the probability that a human mathematician solves it within the same time horizon without assistance from AI.
- Resolution will be based on my judgment.
- I am a PhD student in mathematics.
- I will not place any bets in this market, as the resolution depends on my own judgment.
- Clarifications
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 87% fiyatlıyor.
- Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2030.
- Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market resolves YES if the following statement is true: