Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini2028 20.2%7 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
5
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+0.7 pts
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis22 Kas 25 20:48 UTC22 Kas 30 20:46 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiKurallar
Resolve when someone demonstrates that a very hard-to-recognize image recognition CAPTCHA (one that humans can barely recognize) can nevertheless be consistently recognized by a freely available LLM.
- Update 2025-11-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve when AI can solve any image recognition CAPTCHA better than humans, where "very hard to recognize" means designed to be hard for machines to recognize (not just arbitrary tasks that happen to be easier for LLMs than humans).
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+11.0pt59.8%
- 202730.8%
- 2026+3.0pt9.3%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9,1 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.5pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+8.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.4pt59%
- ChatGPT+2.4pt26.7%
- Gemini+0.3pt5.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺513,3 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt78.4%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12.6%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺19,6 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-2.5pt53%
- 1500+-1.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 2028 için 20% fiyatlıyor.
- When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 22 Kasım 2030.
- When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolve when someone demonstrates that a very hard-to-recognize image recognition CAPTCHA (one that humans can barely recognize) can nevertheless be consistently recognized by a freely available LLM.