Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 94.2%
Tahminciler
23
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis10 Eyl 24 05:42 UTC17 Eyl 29 20:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?
Manifold MarketsWhen will AI be better at Captcha than an average human
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Center for AI Safety announced a forecasting AI that allegedly outperforms Metaculus.
- However, Oliver Habryka and Gwern raised concerns about data contamination.
- If a reliable (according to me) test is performed, will FiveThirtyNine be found to outperform Metaculus?
- If all concerns with the current test will be convincingly debunked, the market will resolve YES.
- If a new test will involve Metaculus forecasts that contain similar AI in the aggregate, it will not be sufficient for a NO resolution.
- If no such test is performed by closing date, it will resolve MKT.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+11.0pt59.8%
- 202730.8%
- 2026+3.0pt9.3%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9,1 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.5pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+8.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.4pt59%
- ChatGPT+2.4pt26.7%
- Gemini+0.3pt5.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺513,3 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt78.4%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12.6%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺19,6 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-2.5pt53%
- 1500+-1.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 94% fiyatlıyor.
- Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 17 Eylül 2029.
- Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Center for AI Safety announced a forecasting AI that allegedly outperforms Metaculus.