Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 81.2%
Tahminciler
8
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
16 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis31 May 26 05:28 UTC31 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models
Manifold MarketsWill Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter?
KalshiWill Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves YES if, as displayed on December 31, 2027, the highest-ranked US-developed open-weights model on the LMArena text leaderboard (default "Overall" text view, lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) is ranked above every China-developed open-weights model.
- Resolves NO otherwise (including if no US open-weights model is listed).
- - Open-weights model: weights publicly downloadable to self-host.
- API-only/proprietary models do not count. - US-developed labs include Google (Gemma), OpenAI (gpt-oss), Meta (Llama), NVIDIA (Nemotron), Microsoft (Phi), AI2 (OLMo), and any other US-headquartered org. - China-developed labs include DeepSeek, Alibaba (Qwen), Moonshot (Kimi), Zhipu (GLM), and any other China-headquartered org. - Comparison is by leaderboard position among open-weights models only; only the standing on the resolution date counts (briefly leading earlier does not). - Source: LMArena text leaderboard.
- If it is discontinued or materially changes format, this resolves via the closest equivalent public, community-vote-based general-purpose LLM leaderboard, at the creator's reasonable discretion.
Açık piyasalar
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,3 Mn
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺634,1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2,2 Mn
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+9.0pt52.8%
- 27°C+3.0pt22.6%
- 25°C-4.0pt16%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No72.3%
- Yes27.7%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺20,1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺758,1 B
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+0.5pt89.1%
- Yes-0.5pt10.9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺150,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺623,7 B
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.4pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 81% fiyatlıyor.
- Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2027.
- Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if, as displayed on December 31, 2027, the highest-ranked US-developed open-weights model on the LMArena text leaderboard (default "Overall" text view, lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) is ranked above every China-developed open-weights model.