Will a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?
One-OffYZRegülasyon2y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
26 Eki 2026 06:50 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahminiEvet 86%
Tahminciler
38
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis23 May 24 13:04 UTC25 May 29 03:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
Tyler Cowen linked to this clarification of his claims: https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872
- It included this: Will we ever see another significant protest calling for a 6 month pause on AI development of frontier models? Highly doubt it.
- Resolves YES if there is such a protest, or there is indeed such a pause.
- If it is a protest, it must call for either an indefinite or 6+ month pause.
- If it is an actual pause, it must last 6 months or be in place on the resolution date, and must include the most advanced AI labs (either 3+ most advanced, or all those within striking distance of the leader).
- Resolves NO if there is no such event.
