Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 77.5%
Tahminciler
23
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
10 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis22 Şub 25 06:12 UTC31 Ara 30 21:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsThird-best AI Lab end of September?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketKurallar
I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.
- I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the markets decision.
- Also please comment if you think I've missed one:
- DeepMind/Google
- Alibaba (NOTE: this used to say Qwen, but Qwen is the name of the model, not the lab)
- XAI (Elon musk lab)
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 78% fiyatlıyor.
- will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2030.
- will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.